Methodology

1. Game logs

Each player has a game log of regular-season games from the current season. For the NFL the source is nflverse weekly player stats; for the NHL and MLB, the leagues’ public stats APIs. A game appears in the log only if the player has a recorded appearance in it. Byes, inactive weeks and injuries produce no entry, so they can never be counted as a zero. The current week is excluded until its games are complete. A player’s team is the most recent team in the stats feed.

2. Hit rates and windows

A line is compared against the player’s stat in each game. For an Over, a game is a hit when the stat is strictly greater than the line; for an Under, strictly less. A game where the stat equals the line is a push. Pushes are removed from the denominator and shown separately, so a cell reads hits / graded games, for example 6/8, with the percentage computed on graded games only. A game with no value for that stat is skipped entirely.

Four windows are shown: the last 3, last 5 and last 10 recorded games, and the whole season. Each window uses up to the stated number of games. Until a player has more than 10 recorded games the last-10 and season windows cover the same games, so player pages hide the duplicate column and label the season column with the real game count. Only the current season is included; prior seasons are never mixed in.

Colors: green is 80% or higher, amber is 50% to 79%, red is below 50%. They describe the past sample and nothing else.

3. Lines and sportsbooks

NFL lines come from The Odds API at each update. The feed is configured for DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Hard Rock Bet (Florida), Caesars, Underdog, PrizePicks, Kalshi and Polymarket. Each posted price is tagged by kind: sportsbook, pick’em (daily fantasy apps, whose prices are indicative) or exchange (prediction markets). Every line a book actually posts is graded against the game log at that exact number, so a player can have several rows for the same stat when books disagree on the line.

Best odds for a given line and side is the highest American price among sportsbook-kind prices only. Pick’em and exchange prices are listed but never win “best odds”. Prices are snapshots taken at update time, not streaming quotes; always confirm at the sportsbook.

Game and week pages show one main line per player and stat: the line quoted by the most books, with ties going to the line nearest the middle of the quoted range.

Sportsbook links go through a tracked redirect (/go/) so the site can count clicks by book and state. Only state-licensed US sportsbooks and daily fantasy apps are linked; offshore books in the feed are shown as text and never linked. None of these links is currently an affiliate link. If that changes, this page will say so.

4. Matchup tags

For each stat and position, the site totals what every defense has allowed per game to that position this season, using all players’ game logs. A line is tagged Good matchup when this week’s opponent is among the five most generous defenses (of 32) for that stat and position, and Tough matchup when it is among the five stingiest. The tag is judged for the side shown: a generous defense helps an Over and hurts an Under. Most lines carry no tag.

5. Market value

When two or more sportsbooks post both sides of the same line, the site removes the vig from each book’s pair of prices to get a fair probability for each side, averages those fair probabilities across books, and compares the result with the implied probability of the best available price. The difference is the value shown as “+x%”. It is displayed only when it is 2% or better, and “Top spots” drops any line below −5%. This is a market-consensus estimate, not a prediction model.

6. Top spots

“Top spots” are at most three lines per update that meet all of the following: a last-10 hit rate of 80% or better and a season hit rate of 75% or better with at least five graded games, a Good matchup tag for the side shown, a price no worse than −150, and market value not below −5%. Only one spot is shown per player and per game. They are a filter on past results, not a recommendation. A graded record of past Top spots will be published once there are enough weeks to be meaningful.

7. NHL and MLB research lines

Until sportsbook odds are live for these sports, each player’s lines are research lines: the player’s season average for that stat, rounded to the nearest .5. They are comparison thresholds, not sportsbook offers, and the pages say so. You can type any number in the interactive tool to test your own line. Daily fantasy and sportsbook prices for these sports will appear with the same rules as the NFL once they are added.

8. Your state

The interactive tool looks up your US state from your IP address on our own server (DB-IP Lite) so it can highlight a sportsbook licensed where you are. A state you pick by hand always wins. Daily fantasy links are hidden in states where those apps do not operate. Nothing about this lookup is sent to a third party; see the privacy policy.

9. Update schedule

• NFL: Thursdays at 8 a.m. Eastern (stats through the completed week, plus the new week’s lines).
• NHL and MLB: every morning at 6 a.m. Eastern.
• Pages: rebuilt after each update. A page’s “Updated” stamp is the time of the data it shows.

10. Known limitations

• Samples are small. Ten games is a tiny sample and five is tinier; a 100% hit rate on five games is not a probability.
• Hit rates ignore context: role changes, injuries, weather, pace and game script. The matchup tag is the only context the site adds.
• Lines move between the Thursday update and kickoff. A line shown here may no longer be available.
• Research lines for NHL and MLB are not market lines and should not be treated as such.

Questions